Month: May 2020

October 27th, 1918 Rochester and the Influenza pandemic

1918-10-27 1918 Influenza deaths and total cases 1918-10-27 Avoid Sure cures Democrat_and_Chronicle_Sun__Oct_27__1918_

In NY City more 100,000 people had been ill within the past 6 weeks and over 12,000 had died.  There were 8 times as many influenza cases as there were pneumonia cases.  In NY City there were doing house to house canvassing to find cases.

Washington issued warnings about any “sure cures” as there were none currently. It was noted that there were several vaccines being tested but that any results so fare “do not permit any conclusion.”

American’s were ending the first-ever daylight savings time.

In Rochester, there were 553 new cases and a total of 9,101 cases. There were 22 deaths from influenza, with a total of 276 deaths in the City. There were 5 deaths from lobar pneumonia. The youngest were: 1-day-old Baby De Carolis (and her mother 29-year-old, Devode De Carolis); 7-month-olds: Salvatorice Delconte, Christina Larone, and Gaetano Antinoro; 1-year-olds: Florence Casey and Vito Presbarge; and 2-year-old Nicholas Capellupo.

Two nurses were stricken at St. Mary’s Hospital, making seven nurses now ill with the disease.

More beds were being added to the emergency hospital at the YWCA. These included 25 beds and there would soon be 24 children’s cots.

At the hospitals only emergency surgeries were being conducted all other nonessential procedures were put on hold.

The Red Cross added two trucks to its motor corps, which was now operating dozens of machines.

Nurses who had been working almost without stop were in some cases becoming ill and more men and women were needed.

It was proposed that houses with influenza in them, be posted with signs stating “Keep put. By order of the Health Bureau.”  There were concerns that many immigrant families would not go to the hospital when they were ill.

There was a call for more cars to help bring nurses and supplies to sick and ill families.

1918-10-27 red cross needs Democrat_and_Chronicle_Sun__Oct_27__1918_

 

© words by Daniel DeMarle

 

October 26th, 1918 Rochester and the Influenza pandemic

1918-10-26 1918 Influenza deaths and total cases

In NY City the Mayor called to draft men with picks and shovels to bury the dead.  There had been 500 persons arrested for spitting in public.

In Rochester at the Baden Street Emergency Hospital State Guardsmen were serving 8-hour shifts as nurses aides.  Local families were taking in orphaned children.

It was ordered that Schools would not reopen on the following Monday. Meanwhile, in Ontario, it was ordered that church services and Schools could reopen.

In Rochester, more drivers and nurses were needed. It was reported that many volunteers were working during the day and then coming directly to work to go to houses to nurse families until 11 or 12 at night, at which point they were taken home.

In one house, the “there had been three deaths, those of the father and two children, and all that were left of the family were in bed sick, so no lone was left to do anything.”

In Rochester, there were 501 new cases and a total of 8548 cases. There were 31 deaths from influenza, with a total of 276 deaths in the City. There were 59 deaths from lobar pneumonia and 26 from bronchial pneumonia too date. The youngest were:  4-month old, Guisseppina Buongugliermo, and 6-month old, Albert Schenk.

 

1918-10-26 Ontario reopens Democrat_and_Chronicle_Sat__Oct_26__1918_1918-10-26 Red Cross needs more help Democrat_and_Chronicle_Sat__Oct_26__1918_

 

© words by Dan DeMarle 5/7/2020

October 25th, 1918 Rochester and the Influenza pandemic

1918-10-24 Sanfrancisco must wear masks Democrat_and_Chronicle_Fri__Oct_25__1918_

In San Francisco, it was now illegal to not wear a maskin in public.  The fees ranged from $5 to $100 dollars or ten days in jail, or both.  $5 in 1918 would now be $93.78, and $100 in 1918 is now equal to $1,875.72.

In NY City, the first landlord arrested for not providing heat was going to court on the 25th.  Price gauging was reported to be a serious issue particularly related to lemons and limes which were recommended for the treatment of influenza.  A national price was being set to only allow $.02 profit ($.38 cents today).

There were concerns over a national coal shortage due to the lack of available men tied to both the War as well as to the number of miners who were sick with influenza.

In Rochester, there were 322 new cases and a total of 8047 cases. There were 45 deaths from influenza, with a total of 245 deaths in the City. There were 51 deaths from lobar pneumonia and 26 from bronchial pneumonia too date. The youngest were: 1-year-olds Maria Pernicano, Angelo Bugio, and Guiseppe Salamoni, and 2-year-olds Robert Waiter.

The new emergency hospital at the Housekeeping Center on Lewis Street was now open and was already very busy.

1918-10-25 1918 Influenza deaths and total cases

 

World War 1 cooking recipes

1918-10-25 World War 1 cooking recipes Democrat_and_Chronicle_Fri__Oct_25__1918_

 

© words by Daniel DeMarle 5/7/2020

October 24th, 1918 Rochester and the Influenza pandemic

1918 mens flu ward

In Rochester, there were 488 new cases and a total of 7,237 cases. There were 45 deaths from influenza, with a total of 225 deaths in the City. There were 72 deaths from lobar pneumonia too date. The youngest were: 6-month-old Guiseppe Giglio, 10-month-old, Mildred Schoeffler, 1-year-olds Mary Zachorhue, Ducille Leippe,  Venere Cassera, Mary Wasoska, and Eileen Holenstein, and 2-year-olds, Luigi Monticelli, and Annie Vitale. One year old, Guiseppe’s family also had to deal with the death of his father, 35-year-old, Alfonso Gigillo.  At the Hahnemann Hospital on the 23rd six members of the same family were admitted.

1918-10-24 1918 Influenza deaths

 

 

© words by Dane DeMarle 5/6/2020

 

Modeling Covid-19 deaths.

IHME model 4-30-2020

Model on 4/30/2020

IHME model 5-6-2020 predictions for 5-15-2020

Model on 5/6/2020

The main model that the Trump Administration is using to predict COVID-19 deaths has changed significantly. This is occurring as the Trump Administration has stated that it wants to close the COVID-19 task force. The model on 4/30/2020 predicted that on 8/4/2020 there would be 72,433 deaths is now predicting 134,475 deaths by that same date. On May 15th it predicted 70,444 deaths (a figure that will be met today) and it now predicts 92,674 deaths by that same date.
 
© words by Dan DeMarle 5/6/2020

October 23rd, 1918 Rochester and the Influenza pandemic

1918-10-23 Whiskey fights gripe Democrat_and_Chronicle_Wed__Oct_23__1918_

In NY City half of the public phonebooths were turned off because 2,000 or 25% of the operators were ill due to the influenza epidemic.  In Omaha Nebraska, a judge ordered 500 gallons of whiskey taken from bootleggers was ordered over to Omaha hospitals to be used in the fight against influenza.

In Rochester, there were 547 new cases and a total of 7237 cases.  There were 34 deaths from influenza, with a total of 180 deaths in the City. There were 4 deaths from lobar pneumonia.  The youngest were: 4-month-old, Margaret Griffith, 1-year-old Vinziniano Ladadia, 2-year-old Vincenno Carapecca, and 4-year-old, Joseph Giali.

There were plans to convert, Convention Hall annex into a 200-bed hospital if needed. There were also plans to open a hospital in the Housekeeping Center in Lewis street.

 

1918-10-23 Red Cross work Democrat_and_Chronicle_Wed__Oct_23__1918_

 

© words by Daniel DeMarle 5/5/2020

 

 

October 22nd, 1918 Rochester and the Influenza pandemic

1918 nurses

Washington reported that there was an improvement in 6 States that 27 other States still saw ongoing spread of the disease.  A possible vaccine was reported in Toronto. Boston was easing up on restrictions as cases were abating.

In Mt. Morris due to the number of deaths and the lack of labors “it was found necessary yesterday to excavate graves in the same manner that basements are made for buildings, with a team and scraper, and in a number of instances several bodies have been placed in one large grave.”  The paper reports that in one case the death of both parents left 5 siblings orphaned.

In a very clever advertisement overly stressed and overworked woman at home and on the front were told the cure for this was a new pair of shoes.

In Rochester, there were 42 new deaths, 34 from influenza and 8 from pneumonia with a total of 146 deaths for the month. These included 16-year-old Myron Deverell from 382 Sawyer St and 30-year-old Albert Weeks from 130 Post Avenue. The youngest from influenza was 3 year old, Lina Marchese of Oak Street. The youngest from bronchial pneumonia was 1 year old, Harry Broskey. There were now nearly 7,000 cases in the City after 550 were reported the day before.

Both the Convention Hall and the State Armory were ready and prepared to be turned into emergency hospitals if needed.

A pneumonia vaccine was reported to be ready.  The vaccine was made from cultures from NY City and mixed by Mrs. Dorothy R. Kraker, the city bacteriologist.

The Red Cross had obtained a new ambulance that was needed to meet the current needs.

The Red Cross was busy making masks and they were now available for anyone who asked. They continued to be busy bringing food to the needy.

 

1918-10-22 new ambulance Democrat_and_Chronicle_Tue__Oct_22__1918_ 1918-10-22 women buy shoes Democrat_and_Chronicle_Tue__Oct_22__1918_
  1. So who was Mrs. Dorothy. R. Kraker?  She is fascinating to me, as she was clearly a lady in the early Stem fields. Here are three articles.  Very sad that she was replaced by a non Dr. Male.

 

© words by Daniel DeMarle 5/3/2020

 

 

 

Models and our future in a pandemic world

There has been dissension in Trump’s world on the current status of the pandemic. A week ago, he said the maximum death would be between 50,000 and 60,000. Most recently he has said between 60,000 and 70,000. Dr. Birx on Fox news stated the estimate has always been between 100 and 220 thousand. The model the Trump administration uses (click link) currently predicted the following
4/27 1,450 deaths vs actual deaths 1,193
4/28 2,170 deaths vs actual deaths 2,410
4/29 1,382 deaths vs actual deaths 2,461
4/30 1,286 deaths vs actual deaths 2,097
5/1 1,155 deaths vs actual deaths 1,723
5/2 1,049 deaths vs actual deaths 1,558
 
on 5/2 the model predicted a total of 62,913 deaths. We are currently at 66,897 deaths.
 
The model, of course, is a model and so the total range of deaths ranges from 60,000 to about 115,000 by the middle of June.
 
So a model is a model, it is not meant to be perfect, but people, for example, our President and his allies are making decisions on this model. This model is currently under predicting. Now that could be the result of the model, OR it could be a reflection on what is going on in our Southern States. The plateau we are on could continue, could fall, OR rapidly climb to a further unknown high. We are not out of the woods yet. By any means.
 

October 21st, 1918 Rochester and the Influenza pandemic

1918 Disinfecting a street car

Disinfecting a Street Car 1918

NYC passed an amendment that any landlords failing to provide heat to tenants during the epidemic will be sent to prison.

Washington urged states to suspend surgeries and to create temporary hospitals for the care of the afflicted.

It was noted that “the army and navy are fighting and conquering Germans. We must fight and conquer germs without taking anything away from the army and navy.”

Hot Lemonade was being touted on Page 1 as being good for influenza.

In Rochester, the Red Cross needed more volunteers.  They noted that “One can hardly visualize the amount of work that must be done in some places visited by a relief worker. When the worker is sent away on a case he or she is supplied with a uniform and a mask. The workers go into some stranger places. Often the first thing they must do is clean up. In some cases the patient is alone, and the relief worker finds that he must cook and companion.” Are restaurants were providing soup and broth.

There was a street car strike in Buffalo. It was noted that police officers in Buffalo were wearing masks. In Rochester, street car use was down. There was a slight change in service in the early morning and evening. It was noted that all cars were
thoroughly fumigated” before they left the storage barns.

There were now 6,138 cases in the City. Thirteen more deaths were reported on Sunday. This brought the total to 112 deaths from influenza and 34 from lobar pneumonia and 23 from bronchial pneumonia.

The Baden Street Settlement Hospital opened at Noon and by night ten patients had been received. There were 15 patients at the newly opened hospital at the YWCA.

It was reported that it was not uncommon for several or all members of a family to be found sick with influenza.

1918-10-21 Deaths in Rochester Democrat_and_Chronicle_Mon__Oct_21__1918_

 

© words by Dan DeMarle 5/2/2020

 

 

October 20th, 1918 Rochester and the Influenza pandemic

In NY City, there was an estimated half a million cases with high mortality.

In NY The State Commissioner of Health gave a clear explanation of the influenza virus and described that how individuals reacted could either extend the illness in the State or shorten it.  Mask wearing and handwashing were keys to fighting the disease.  In addition kissing and even handshaking were recommended to be avoided and what we now call social distancing was encouraged. Taking temperature was one of the best ways to determine whether an individual had a common cold or had influenza.

The essential aspects of the epidemic were laid out to be:

  1. Early detection
  2. Immediate isolation of the patient
  3. The general adoption of mask-wearing
  4. What we now refer to as Social distancing
  5. Washing of hands and belongings.

A possible vaccine for the disease was being tested and touted.

The Red Cross was in need of women and men.  It was noted that “Very many of the influenza patients are delirious and require more strength to restrain them than young and inexperienced volunteer nurses have. For this reason, men who have leisure, either day or night, are earnestly requested to come forward and help.”

It was noted that it was a necessity to regularly clean telephone mouthpieces.

The acting Rochester health commissioner was developing a campaign to discourage the returning of merchandise after a shopper tried to return just bought underwear that was too large for her two children who both had influenza.  This was already banned in Buffalo.

The National Casket Company was ordered to increase its production of plainer caskets to meet the increased needs due to the influenza pandemic.

In Rochester, the new hospital in the YMCA was open and operating and this was for women. A new hospital at the Baden Street Settlement was to open the next day and that would be for men.

There were 705 additional cases during the day bringing the City total to 5,500. It was noted that this was likely an undercount of several hundred as not all Doctors were reporting these numbers.  There were three influenza deaths and two pneumonia deaths. The youngest was Marie Berts aged 4.  There were a total of 156 deaths from influenza and pneumonia and 103 from influenza.

© words by Dan DeMarle 4/30/2020