There has been dissension in Trump’s world on the current status of the pandemic. A week ago, he said the maximum death would be between 50,000 and 60,000. Most recently he has said between 60,000 and 70,000. Dr. Birx on Fox news stated the estimate has always been between 100 and 220 thousand. The model the Trump administration uses (click link) currently predicted the following
4/27 1,450 deaths vs actual deaths 1,193
4/28 2,170 deaths vs actual deaths 2,410
4/29 1,382 deaths vs actual deaths 2,461
4/30 1,286 deaths vs actual deaths 2,097
5/1 1,155 deaths vs actual deaths 1,723
5/2 1,049 deaths vs actual deaths 1,558
on 5/2 the model predicted a total of 62,913 deaths. We are currently at 66,897 deaths.
The model, of course, is a model and so the total range of deaths ranges from 60,000 to about 115,000 by the middle of June.
So a model is a model, it is not meant to be perfect, but people, for example, our President and his allies are making decisions on this model. This model is currently under predicting. Now that could be the result of the model, OR it could be a reflection on what is going on in our Southern States. The plateau we are on could continue, could fall, OR rapidly climb to a further unknown high. We are not out of the woods yet. By any means.
leavingleavesineaves 